The CBO’s numbers are in. Projected savings through 2016 are 337 billion dollars and the number of insured Americans will decline by 24 million souls.
Premiums are projected to be 15 to 20 percent higher in the first year compared to the ACA. After 2026 premiums are projected to be 10 percent lower on average. The report says older Americans would pay substantially more (whatever that means) and younger Americans would pay less.
Under the republican plan there would be 52 million uninsured Americans in 2026 compared to the 28 million that would be uninsured under the ACA.
As expected the alternative facts administration of Trump spent the weekend trying to undercut the CBO.
The Washington Post – House Speaker Paul D. Ryan’s proposal to revise the Affordable Care Act would lower the number of Americans with health insurance by 24 million while reducing the federal deficit by $337 billion by 2026, congressional budget analysts said Monday.
The report from the Congressional Budget Office underscores the dramatic loss in health insurance coverage that would take place if the GOP health-care plan is enacted, potentially contradicting President Trump’s vow that the plan would provide “insurance for everybody” and threatening support from moderate Republican lawmakers.
Fourteen million people would lose health coverage next year alone, the report stated. Premiums would be 15 to 20 percent higher in the first year compared to the ACA, and 10 percent lower on average after 2026. By and large, older Americans would pay “substantially” more and younger Americans less, the report states.
Proponents of the plan, led by Ryan (R-Wis.), have argued the total number of people covered is the wrong way to measure the law’s impact.
The White House has spent the last week engaged in a charm offensive aimed at bringing those conservatives on board, as well as an effort to discredit the CBO before it released numbers that might cast the plan in a negative light.
“If you’re looking to the CBO for accuracy, you’re looking in the wrong place,” White House spokesman Sean Spicer said last week.
The ACA has increased coverage by 20 million to 22 million – almost half of those through the insurance markets the law created for people who cannot get affordable coverage through a job, and the rest through an expansion of Medicaid in 31 states and the District of Columbia.
According to the CBO, an estimated 52 million people would be uninsured in 2026, compared with 28 million who would lack insurance that year under current law.
The Trump administration led a broad effort to undercut the CBO over the weekend, including pointing out flaws in its forecasts for the ACA.
In January, Trump had promised to replace the ACA with a plan that provided “insurance for everybody.”
“There was a philosophy in some circles that if you can’t pay for it, you don’t get it. That’s not going to happen with us,” Trump said in a Jan. 15 interview with The Washington Post.
“It’s not going to be their plan,” Trump said of people covered under the Affordable Care Act. “It’ll be another plan. But they’ll be beautifully covered. I don’t want single-payer. What I do want is to be able to take care of people.”
A summary and the full text of the 37 page CBO report can be found HERE.