THE BIG IDEA: As a House freshman, Jay Inslee lost reelection in 1994 because of voter frustration with Bill Clinton’s first two years as president. Tom Foley, who represented an adjacent district, became the first Speaker to lose reelection since the depths of the Civil War.
“I’ve personally experienced a 65-foot fall tsunami directed at a party whose president had caused a great backlash,” said Inslee, who returned to Congress four years later and is now in his second term as governor of Washington State. “So I know what blowback can look like, and I will tell you that the energy that now exists in the opposite direction is greater than existed in 1994.”
As the chairman-elect of the Democratic Governors Association, Inslee will quarterback his party’s efforts in next year’s gubernatorial contests. To say he’s bullish would be an understatement. “Democrats are going to crawl across broken glass on their knees to go vote in 2018, if the conditions exist as they do today,” Inslee said during an interview yesterday afternoon at the J.W. Marriott, before he headed to the White House for a black-tie gala hosted by President Trump.
Hm, not so fast. You see it’s like this. Folks vote their pocketbook. So, If Trump does deliver on bringing jobs back to America (unlikely), the economy continues to improve (we note the economy is stronger because of President Obama), he builds that wall and makes Mexico pay for it (ain’t gonna happen), and defeats ISIS (we’re still waiting for that secret 30 day plan to of his), none of his bigotry, xenophobia, misogyny, legendary lying, or anything else will matter. Principals and values are trumped, pun intended, every time by the family’s financial and physical security.
We’re not saying Trump is going to succeed with his grandiose plan to Make America Great Again. In the first place America is already great, and for reasons Trump obviously doesn’t understand. Just as important Trump has already shown his ineptness with an executive branch in disarray and his inability to give sound rational guidance. Even to his own party. If things start to fall apart over the next 18 months, it is at least a 50/50 chance they will, then yes, 2018 may very well be the tsunami Inslee is talking about. Followed by sweeping an unprincipled and inept Trump out of office in 2020.
What is the bottom line here? Democrats had better not get cocky or too confident. Don’t forget what just happened in 2016. They also better forge solid relationships with the moderate wing of their own party, reach daily across the aisle to forge relationships with more reasonable and liberal republicans in congress, calm the nerves of the more progressive element in their party (because defeating Trump and his dangerously reactionary agenda in is job 1 for 2020), and they had better focus on governorships and state houses as well.
This writer has always been a fiscal conservative and generally believed the republican party was best equipped to handle both domestic and foreign affairs effectively. The last 16 years has taught me this is no longer true. Maybe it never was. At any rate the fight to defeat Trump, those supporting him, and his reactionary agenda is the most pressing concern and perhaps the most difficult challenge of the next four years.
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